Author: Rufei Guo, Junsen Zhang, Minghai Zhou

Abstract: Fertility differentials across countries drive global migration. Despite a vibrant research agenda on the demographic forces behind international migration, little empirical research probes into the demography of internal migration. We analyze the demography of China’s internal migration from 1996–2010. Specifically, we construct bilateral migration flows across Chinese prefectures and exploit large variations in cohort sizes induced by historical events. We find asymmetric impacts of “push” and “pull” demographic factors in determining internal migration. We also explore economic mechanisms behind demographic forces, such as the moderating effects of physical distance and social network, the substitution pattern by education, and a thick-market effect for marriage migration.

Keywords: Internal migration；Differential fertility；Cohort size；Demographic force

The article was published in the March 2024 issue 167 of "Journal of Development Economics," which is a Level A- reward journal in the academic journal ranking scheme of the Economics and Management School of Wuhan University.

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387823001918?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-9&rr=83ad81c19a692754