Topic: Segregation, Spillovers, and the Locus of Racial Change

Speaker: Donald Davis, Columbia University Professor of Economics and International Affairs

Time: April 28, 2025, 15:30

Venue: EMS 440

Abstract:

Existing empirical research in economics on neighborhood racial sorting is overwhelmingly premised on the idea that racial preferences for a location depend on the racial shares in that location, without considering potential spatial spillover effects from nearby areas. Does this matter for the way we view the cross-section and dynamics of racial neighborhood segregation? We nest Schelling (1971)’s bounded neighborhood and spatial proximity theories within a discrete choice model, where the key distinction is precisely such spatial spillovers. We simulate the model and examine the data for 1970-2000 for more than 100 U.S. metros. Two features of the data are most compelling: the powerful presence of racial clusters and the fact that drastic racial change is concentrated at the boundary of these clusters. Both point to the spatial proximity model as the proper foundation for a theory of racial neighborhood evolution. We use these insights to revisit prominent results on racial tipping where our theory guides us to distinguish differences by location. While prior research pointed to powerful racial tipping in the form of White exit, we show this is largely driven by theoretically-distinct “biased white suburbanization” leading to White entry in remote areas. In urban areas far from existing Minority clusters, we find zero or small tipping effects, at odds with a bounded neighborhood interpretation. The most consistent effects of tipping, still of modest size, are found in areas adjacent to existing Minority clusters, confirming the relevance of the racial spillovers of the spatial proximity model. Existing research conflates these quite distinct effects. Overall, our results suggests that tipping is a less central feature of racial neighborhood change than suggested in prior research and that greater attention needs to be paid to spatial dimensions of the problem.

Guest Bio:

Donald Davis is the Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 1992 and taught at Harvard University from 1992 to 1999 before returning to Columbia, where he previously served as Chair of the Economics Department.

Professor Davis has held editorial roles at leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Urban Economics, and is a past president of the Urban Economics Association. His research spans multiple areas of spatial economics, ranging from international trade and economic geography to regional and urban economics.