Author: Jindong Pang, Lan An, Shulin Shen

Abstract: This paper explores the effect of gasoline prices on traffic congestion and carbon emissions. The international crude oil price is used as an instrumental variable for the gasoline price in Chinese cities. Empirical results show that a ten percent increase in gasoline prices significantly decreases traffic congestion in rush hours by 0.87 percent. In addition to reducing vehicle kilometers traveled, higher gasoline prices also decrease carbon emissions by increasing travel speed and fuel efficiency. A ten percent increase in gasoline prices is found to decrease CO2 emissions by 40.6 million metric tons, accounting for 2.3 percent of the total CO2 emissions in the transport sector of China in 2016. This paper's estimates offer guidance for gasoline pricing policies, fuel taxes, traffic congestion, and the Dual-Carbon Target.

Keywords: gasoline price； traffic congestion； carbon emission； fuel efficiency.

The article was published online in October 2023 in the prestigious journal "Resource and Energy Economics" in the field of resource and environmental economics. This journal is a Level B+ reward journal of the Economics and Management School of Wuhan University.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101407