讲座题目： The Negative Growth-Volatility Relationship and the Gains from Financial Integration

　　报告人：聂军(美联储银行高级经济学家)

　　报告时间：2017年3月10日(周五)下午2:30-4:00

　　报告地点：经管院B127

　　主办单位：数理经济与数理金融系

　　摘要: We document a negative relationship between average growth and volatility in a cross-section of countries. We then provide an interpretation of this result using a robustness (RB) version of the Obstfeld (1994) model of financial diversification and openness. Incorporating a preference for robustness can generate the observed negative relationship between growth and volatility of real GDP. Furthermore, we show that RB reduces the expected growth rate in a diversified equilibrium (positive holdings of risk-free capital), while it could increase growth in an undiversified equilibrium. Using this framework, we calculate the growth and welfare gains associated with financial market openness, and show that international integration has a smaller effect on welfare gain under RB if the economy is in a diversified equilibrium.

　　简介: 聂军博士，2009年毕业于纽约大学，获经济学博士，现任职于美联储堪萨斯银行研究部高级经济学家。主要研究方向为宏观经济学、劳动经济学与国际经济学。研究成果发表在国际一流学术期刊Journal of European Economic Association, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, European Economic Review等。