讲座题目：Haze and Decision Making: A Natural-Laboratory Experiment

　　报告人：周恕弘讲席教授

　　报告时间：2017年2月24日星期五14:00 – 16:30

　　报告地点：经管院B127

　　主办单位：数理经济与数理金融系

　　摘要：The adverse impact of haze on both short term and longer term health and related economic outcomes has received increasing attention in the media. This paper is a first attempt at investigating the causal effect of haze directly on decision making in a natural laboratory experiment in Beijing over five days in October 2012 with highly varying levels of Particulate Matters 2.5, before this measure became commonly used in China the next year. An increase in the level of haze increases the degree of risk aversion elicited from a portfolio choice task and the degree of ambiguity aversion when facing gain oriented uncertainty as well as the degree of risk seeking behavior for even-chance risk over losses. This in turn implies a greater tendency towards the disposition effect in investor behavior. Additionally, in temporal decision making, subjects are more impatient when discounting over a remote comparison, but not for tradeoffs over the near term. Moreover, subjects exhibit a diminished winning motive in the second-price auction, greater departure from optimal behavior in the p-Beauty game, more selfishness in the dictator game, greater inequity aversion in the ultimatum game, and less cooperativeness in the prisoner dilemma game. Overall, our results point to a haze-brain-decision pathway as foundation for several recent findings linking haze to short term economic outcomes including productivity, crime, and stock market.

　　简介：周恕弘教授于1998年至2013年在香港科技大学经济系担任正教授，2005年至2013年担任香港科技大学讲席教授。2009年至今担任新加坡国立大学经济系和金融系讲席教授与香港科技大学兼职教授。2011年当选国际经济计量学会院士，是国际经济计量学会历史上第11位华人院士。周恕弘教授的研究领域包括决策理论、行为经济学、实验经济学和生物经济学。研究成果多发表在五大国际顶尖的经济学期刊上。