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经济学高级研究论坛第75期
时间:2017-04-19    点击数:

  讲座题目:What Determines China's Housing Price Dynamics? New Evidence from a DSGE-VAR

  报告人:Zhirong Ou(英国卡迪夫商学院,助理教授)

  报告时间:2017年4月25日(周二)下午1:30-3:00

  报告地点:经管院B131

  主办单位:数理经济与数理金融系,主持人:崔静波

  摘要:We investigate what determines China's housing price dynamics using a DSGE-VAR estimated with priors allowing for the featured operating of normal and `shadow' banks in China, with data observed between 2000 and 2014. We find that near 80% of the housing price fluctuation can be explained by the housing demand shock, which is also found to be the essential factor for housing price `bubbles' to happen. We also find that a prosperous housing market could have implied future economic growth, but empirically the marginal impact is small. But this also means that, for policy-makers who wish to stabilise the housing market, the cost on output reduction would be quite limited.

  简介:Ou Zhirong博士,毕业于英国卡迪夫商学院(Cardiff Business School),获得经济学博士,先任职于卡迪夫商学院,助理教授。研究方向:宏观经济学。研究成果已发表在经济学国际学术期刊Economic Modeling (SSCI)等。