讲座主题：Technology and Market Structure: An Empirical Analysis of Entry and Exit in the Banking Industry

　　主讲人：刘宏举

　　讲座地点：B129

　　讲座时间：2017年12月15日(周五)上午10：00-11:30

　　讲座摘要：Most U.S. banks started to offer Internet banking in late 1990s. Since then the retail banking industry has been expected to substitute the costly branch network with the far more cost-efficient Internet channel. However, we find that the expansion of online banking did not reduce the total number of brick-and-mortar branches, and furthermore, large, national banks expanded their branch network at the cost of small, local banks. Using detailed data on branch location and performance, we estimate a dynamic entry/exit model to investigate the relationship between the technology advancement and the market structure evolution. Our findings suggest that the advent of online banking has provided significant competitive advantages to large banks over small banks. Specifically, large banks are in a better position to take advantage of the increasing residential broadband penetration rate by investing more in online banking services, and hence improve efficiency and reduce the costs in operating offline branches. Our model can disentangle how different factors contribute to the market structure evolution. Through counterfactual simulations, we show that the reduction in operating costs for large banks is the most significant factor in driving the evolution of the U.S. banking industry, followed by higher entry costs and higher deposits due to greater online presence.

　　个人简介：刘宏举，北京大学数学科学学院本科毕业，威斯康星大学数学硕士及计算机硕士，芝加哥大学工商管理硕士及市场营销学博士。曾任职于甲骨文公司硅谷总部，担任主任工程师。现任康涅狄格大学商学院市场营销学副教授（终身教职），艾克曼学者，博士生项目负责人。主要研究方向为动态结构模型，高科技及互联网市场，医药营销，实证产业组织等。研究成果发表于Journal of Marketing Research，Marketing Science，Management Science，MIS Quarterly等国际一流学术期刊。