讲座主题：Whose Opinion is More Valuable? Those who Bought a Lot or Those who Rated a Lot?

　　主讲人：沈俏蔚

　　讲座地点：B127

　　讲座时间：2018年03月23日(周五)上午10：00-11：30

　　摘要: Many firms gather opinions from online users which include not only customers who actually purchase but also individuals who simply voice. Should firms only listen to the buyers? In this paper we address this question by examining a scenario in which a firm uses online votes to determine what products to launch. By analyzing a data set that tracks both individual ratings to product designs and their purchase behavior as well as the eventual market performance of the launched products, we find that both rating experience and purchase experience of the voter group enhance average rating's predictive power of sales. Further analysis reveals that rating experience could be an effective way of learning in terms of discriminating quality of product designs. At the individual level, we find that rating experience makes one's score more detached from his own preference while purchase experience does the opposite. Such difference also explains the finding that purchase experience enhances prediction of sales from core users while rating experience improves predictions of sales from general buyers.

　　个人简介：沈俏蔚，北京大学光华管理学院市场营销系教授。于2008年获得美国加州大学伯克利分校（UC Berkeley)市场营销专业博士学位，此前获得北京大学经济学学士、硕士学位。2008年至2015年任教于美国宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院，2015年秋至今任教于北京大学光华管理学院。研究领域包括企业与消费者决策的量化模型,社交与新媒体以及营销策略等。多篇论文发表于Marketing Science和Management Science等营销学领域国际顶级学术期刊，并获2014年度美国运筹学与管理学协会（INFORMS）营销科学John Little最佳论文提名奖。2017年国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金获得者。