讲座题目：Referral Networks and Renewal Rates: An Empirical Study from a Content Provision Platform （推荐网络与续订率：来自内容提供平台的实证研究）

主讲人：汪通   爱丁堡大学商学院

讲座时间：2024年6月17日10:00

讲座地点：学院222

讲座内容摘要：

This paper investigates the complexities of digital product membership renewals. Using an extensive dataset from a Chinese content platform, we analyze the interplay of price changes and peer influences within referral networks and their collective impact on users’ decision to renew. Our study reveals several key insights: First, through regression modeling, we quantify the price elasticity and uncover a positive correlation between a user’s likelihood of renewal and both the renewal decisions of their referrers and the quantity of their referees. Second, we further examine the cascading effects of price changes across the network. One significant advantage of our structural model is its capacity to allow the referral network to be endogenously determined by users’ consideration and prediction of the renewal decisions of both upstream referrer and downstream referees. The findings reveal that targeted discounts for referees are more effective than either uniform discounts or targeted discounts aimed at referrers. Such marketing strategies would efficiently improve renewal rates while avoiding potential revenue loss. Last, further evidence sheds light on how different network structures affect overall renewal rates, suggesting that networks characterized by high level of connectivity yet low level of centrality are more conducive to sustaining customer loyalty.

本文探讨了数字产品会员续订的复杂性。利用来自中国内容平台的大量数据集，我们分析了推荐网络内价格变化和同行影响的相互作用及其对用户续订决策的集体影响。我们的研究揭示了几个关键见解：首先，通过回归建模，我们量化了价格弹性，并发现用户续订的可能性与其推荐人和推荐数量的续订决策之间存在正相关性。其次，我们进一步检查了价格变化在整个网络中的级联效应。我们结构模型的一个显著优势是其能力，允许推荐网络由用户对上游推荐人和下游被推荐人的续订决策的考虑和预测来内生地确定。研究结果表明，针对被推荐人的定向折扣比统一折扣或针对推荐人的定向折扣更有效。这样的营销策略将有效提高续订率，同时避免潜在的收入损失。最后，进一步的证据揭示了不同的网络结构如何影响总体续订率，表明具有高连通性但低中心性的网络更有助于维持客户忠诚度。

主讲人学术简介：

汪通，现为爱丁堡大学商学院商业经济学副教授（Senior Lecturer），图卢兹经济学院经济学博士。加入爱丁堡大学工作前，于欧洲大学学院担任让·莫奈研究员，从事规制和竞争政策分析的研究工作。其主要研究兴趣为：产业组织理论、区块链机制设计和应用，以及高科技在公司金融上的应用。汪通博士的工作发表于多家国际高水平杂志，诸如Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of Economic Theory，European Journal of Finance等。