题目：China's Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth

报告人：张玉哲   Texas A&M University

时间：2019年12月13日(周五) 10:00～12:30

地点：经管院A321

报告摘要：

China's housing prices have been growing rapidly over the past few decades, despite low growth in rents. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China's economy, based on the understanding that local governments use land-sale revenue to fuel infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the period 2003-2013 and find that our calibrated model can match the declining capital return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure to GDP ratio in the data. We conduct two counterfactual experiments. First, if the bubble bursts in 2025, then on impact the GDP growth rate would fall to 2.6% due to the hit to the housing sector, but GDP in the long run would exceed the scenario with the bubble intact because of the reallocation of capital and labor to the nonhousing sector. Second, if the bubble remains, implementing a property tax and using tax revenue to finance infrastructure investment would reduce housing prices and increase long-run GDP.

报告人简介：

张玉哲，德州农工大学副教授，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行研究员，在Economic Journal、Journal of Economic Theory、AEJ: Macroeconomics、International Economic Review、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等期刊发表论文近20篇，担任Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、Economics Bulletin等期刊的associate editor，担任American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies等知名期刊匿名审稿人。